LSU vs. Ole Miss: A Battle for SEC West Supremacy
The Stakes
The eagerly anticipated SEC West matchup between No. 13 LSU and No. 20 Ole Miss is set to take place on Saturday. This game holds significant implications for the race to represent the SEC West in the December SEC Championship game. Both teams are aiming to solidify their positions as top contenders in the division.
A Historical Perspective
The recent history between LSU and Ole Miss favors the Tigers, who have emerged victorious in six of the past seven matchups. However, the Rebels managed to secure a win in their last meeting at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium in 2021. This victory allowed Ole Miss to avenge their defeat from the previous year and served as a stark reminder of the Tigers’ dominance.
Revenge as Motivation
This year, revenge will undoubtedly be a crucial driving force for Ole Miss. Last season, entering the matchup with a perfect 7-0 record and a No. 7 national ranking, the Rebels seemed poised to continue their impressive run. However, LSU shattered their dreams with a resounding 45-20 victory. From that point on, Ole Miss struggled, losing five of their final six games. The memory of that defeat, along with their subsequent decline, will undoubtedly fuel the Rebels’ determination to upend the Tigers this time around.
Battle for SEC West Supremacy
Both LSU and Ole Miss find themselves in a highly competitive SEC West division. Unlike previous seasons, where the divisional champion was determined by head-to-head matchups, the division appears to be up for grabs this year. Early nonconference losses suffered by LSU and perennial powerhouse Alabama have thrown the division into a state of uncertainty.
Next season, with the SEC expanding and eschewing divisions, the outcome of this game takes on even greater significance. The victor will gain valuable momentum, potentially positioning themselves as the front-runner for the first non-divisional SEC West crown.
Keys to Victory
Limiting Explosive Plays
Both LSU and Ole Miss possess potent offenses capable of producing big plays. They are currently tied for sixth nationally in plays of 25 yards or more, with each team notching 20 such chunk gains through four games. However, both defenses have struggled to contain explosive plays, which may become a deciding factor in this matchup.
LSU‘s defense displayed vulnerabilities in their season-opening loss to Florida State, with three touchdown plays of 20 yards or more surrendered. Similarly, Ole Miss allowed big plays against Mercer, Tulane, and Alabama. Whichever defense can effectively limit the opponent’s explosive plays will gain a significant advantage in this game.
More Targets for Prieskorn
Ole Miss tight end Caden Prieskorn, regarded as a high-impact transfer, has yet to fulfill his potential in the Rebels’ passing game. Despite making a 21-yard grab in their last game against Alabama, he was not targeted again. With the departure of tight end Michael Trigg, establishing Prieskorn as a reliable target becomes crucial for Ole Miss. Utilizing his 6-foot-6 frame could create matchup problems for LSU‘s defense and open up opportunities for the Rebels’ passing attack.
Getting off the Field
LSU‘s offense has excelled on third downs, currently ranking fifth nationally in third-down conversions at 58%. However, their defense has struggled to get off the field, ranking tied for 99th nationally in third-down defense. Opponents have been successful on 56% of their third-down plays against the Tigers.
Against formidable opponents like Florida State and Arkansas, LSU‘s defense conceded crucial third-down conversions at critical junctures. Ole Miss, led by quarterback Jaxson Dart’s mobility, will likely challenge LSU‘s third-down defense. If the Tigers wish to secure a victory, improving their ability to get off the field on third downs is essential.
Prediction and Expert Picks
According to the consensus of multiple experts, including Dennis Dodd, Tom Fornelli, Chip Patterson, Barrett Sallee, Shehan Jeyarajah, and David Cobb, LSU currently holds a -2.5 point spread advantage. These experts project a victory for the Tigers, citing their proven ability to score quickly, physicality, and an advantageous matchup against the Rebels’ struggling running game.
While the Ole Miss passing attack has yet to fully come together due to injuries among key pass-catchers, LSU‘s secondary is expected to pose a challenge. The Tigers’ ability to score rapidly makes them favored to pull away in the second half of the game.
Conclusion
The LSU vs. Ole Miss matchup promises to be a highly competitive contest with significant implications for the SEC West standings. Revenge will be a motivating factor for Ole Miss, seeking to avenge their decisive defeat at the hands of LSU last season.
To emerge victorious, both teams must focus on limiting explosive plays and improving their defensive performance on critical third downs. Additionally, Ole Miss needs to utilize tight end Caden Prieskorn effectively, while LSU aims to continue their offensive efficiency.
With expert opinions favoring LSU, the Tigers appear well-positioned to continue their recent dominance over Ole Miss and solidify their position as a top contender in the SEC West. However, football games are often unpredictable, and the Rebels will be determined to prove the experts wrong and reclaim their status as a formidable force in the SEC.
<< photo by Sara Free >>
The image is for illustrative purposes only and does not depict the actual situation.
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