Florida’s Future in the Balance: Analyzing Three Determining Factors for the Gulf Storm

Florida Forecast: Three Key Factors that Will Determine if Gulf Storm Becomes a Hurricane

Introduction

With Tropical Storm Franklin gaining strength after hitting Hispaniola, meteorologists are now closely monitoring another potential storm development in the Gulf of Mexico. While social media has been abuzz with rumors of a “Category 6” hurricane hitting Florida in September, it’s important to separate fact from fiction. While a catastrophic storm of that magnitude does not exist, it is increasingly likely that Florida will experience widespread rain, coastal flooding, and wind impacts from a tropical system crossing the eastern Gulf of Mexico next week. However, there are three key considerations that will determine the outcome and severity of the storm.

Key Consideration #1: Formation and Track of the Storm

The most uncertain aspect of the forecast at this stage is where the center of circulation will form over the weekend. Currently, there is cyclonic turning in the northwestern Caribbean Sea, with scattered thunderstorm activity. This rotation and convection will gradually coalesce near or over the Yucatan Peninsula and move little through Monday. The eventual track of the storm, which may be named Idalia, depends on where the circulation forms. If it forms north and east, the risks will lean towards the Florida peninsula, while a formation farther west could favor a track towards the Panhandle. The development of the storm will also depend on the time it spends over water – the longer it remains over water, the stronger it can potentially become.

Key Consideration #2: Role of Dry Air

While the steering currents for the storm are well predicted, the amount of mid-level dry air that will affect the storm is less certain. The European model suggests a stronger system with dry air just west of the developing circulation, while the American model (GFS) shows the dry air engulfing the storm as it moves across the Gulf of Mexico. The outcome will be influenced by where the circulation actually forms. There is also the possibility of additional waves of dry, continental air reaching the storm mid-week as it approaches Florida.

Key Consideration #3: Gulf Water Temperatures

The Gulf of Mexico is currently experiencing high water temperatures, ranging from 86°F to 90°F, which are two to five degrees warmer than normal. These warm waters provide a massive reservoir of potential energy for a tropical cyclone crossing the eastern Gulf. However, extreme water temperatures alone cannot determine the intensity of a storm. It would require low wind shear and ample mid-level moisture for the storm to intensify quickly. The current conditions suggest that the storm would have enough time over near-90 degree waters to potentially strengthen rapidly, but predicting rapid strengthening is not something that models can consistently do well.

Conclusion

While it is too early to make a specific prediction about the outcome of this storm, Florida should prepare for potentially nasty weather in the Tuesday to Thursday timeframe. Depending on the formation of the storm’s center, the amount of dry air it pulls in, and the time it spends over water, the most likely outcomes range from a rainy, lopsided tropical storm to a storm similar to Hurricane Hermine or even stronger. Florida can learn from the historical Hurricane Gordon in 2000, which caused confusion and delays along the Gulf Coast but weakened to a tropical storm before making landfall. It is important for Floridians to stay vigilant and prepare for any potential impacts, and to identify and address any gaps in disaster kits. As this storm develops, stay tuned for updates from meteorologists.