“The Road to the White House: Key Dynamics to Observe in the 2024 Republican Presidential Primary”

The Republican Primary Debate: Trump’s Absence and the Battle for Viable Alternatives

Introduction

The first 2024 Republican presidential primary debate is set to take place tonight in Milwaukee. However, the absence of front-runner Donald Trump has shifted the dynamic of the event, putting the spotlight on the remaining candidates who are vying to emerge as the party’s top alternative to the former president. This article will delve into six key factors to watch during tonight’s debate.

1. Can DeSantis Withstand the Bright Lights?

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who has consistently polled in second place among likely Republican primary voters, may find himself facing increased scrutiny in Trump’s absence. As the current frontrunner in Trump’s absence, DeSantis will be the primary target for the other candidates seeking to position themselves as the most viable Trump alternative. However, attacking Trump could risk alienating a significant portion of the Republican primary electorate, as Trump’s popularity remains strong among Republican voters. DeSantis, who has faced some campaign setbacks and staff reshuffling, will need a strong performance tonight to stabilize his campaign.

2. To Trump or Not to Trump?

With Trump absent from the stage, the remaining candidates have an opportunity to present themselves and their own ideas for the future. However, the degree to which the debate still revolves around Trump will depend on the moderators’ questions and the candidates’ strategies. According to former Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker, who has shared a debate stage with Trump in the past, attacking Trump may be a waste of time for the candidates. Instead, Walker advises the candidates to focus on presenting a breakthrough moment and a bold agenda to generate buzz and excitement among voters.

3. The Trump Critics’ Role Without Trump

Three of the candidates on stage, Mike Pence, Chris Christie, and Asa Hutchinson, have centered their campaigns around their criticism of Trump. With Trump not present to directly confront, these candidates face uncertainty in their debate strategies. Pence has positioned himself as a devoted ideological conservative and has urged his rivals to take clear positions in support of federal abortion restrictions. Christie, the only candidate with prior experience in presidential primary debates, has a history of effectively challenging his opponents. Hutchinson’s approach remains to be seen. The moderators’ questions may bring up Pence’s actions on January 6, potentially adding another layer of complexity to the debate.

4. A South Carolina Standout?

Both Tim Scott and Nikki Haley, the two candidates from South Carolina, hope to have breakout moments during tonight’s debate. Scott is a prolific fundraiser and a seasoned campaigner, having previously delivered the GOP response to President Biden’s State of the Union address. As the Senate’s only Black Republican, his optimistic message could resonate among non-White conservatives. Haley offers diverse leadership and has targeted Vivek Ramaswamy in recent days, considering his rise in the ranks. Their performances will be pivotal in shaping their path to higher poll numbers.

5. Are Breakout Moments Possible?

With Trump absent, the question arises of whether any candidate will be able to create a breakout moment that could propel them forward in the race. Trump himself is not ceding the spotlight, with a pre-recorded interview with Tucker Carlson set to be released around the same time as the debate. Additionally, Trump’s upcoming turn-in at the Fulton County jail will keep the focus on him. The challenge for the candidates is to capture lasting momentum from a strong performance, as Trump’s shadow looms over the 2024 GOP race.

6. Will Anyone Have an ‘Oops’ Moment?

Poor debate performances have proven detrimental to candidates vying for their party’s top alternative. Rick Perry’s infamous “oops” moment in 2012, Chris Christie’s effective takedown of Marco Rubio in 2016, and Elizabeth Warren’s scathing critique of Michael Bloomberg in 2020 all demonstrate the potential pitfalls of debates for candidates. As some 2024 Republican contenders telegraph potential attacks on their rivals, how candidates respond to these attacks could significantly impact the trajectory of the GOP race.

Conclusion

The absence of Donald Trump from the first 2024 Republican primary debate puts the remaining candidates in the spotlight as they vie for the top alternative position. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis faces heightened scrutiny, while other candidates must navigate how to present themselves without directly confronting Trump. The strategies employed by candidates critical of Trump, the potential for breakout moments, and the risk of poor debate performances will all shape the trajectory of the GOP race. As the Republican primary unfolds, the race for the viable alternative to Trump remains a central dynamic for the party’s future.