The Battle for the Spotlight: Predicting the Winner of the First Republican Debate

### Introduction

Wednesday marks a significant day in the 2024 presidential race as eight candidates take the stage in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, for the first Republican primary debate. Anticipation is high, with speculation over potential game-changing moments and their impact on voters’ opinions. To provide insight into the potential effects of the debate, FiveThirtyEight has partnered with Ipsos and The Washington Post to conduct a Republican primary poll both before and after the debate.

### Setting Expectations

The expectations voters hold for each candidate can significantly influence how their debate performance is perceived. Candidates who surpass expectations often receive positive coverage, while those failing to meet expectations face criticism. To understand these expectations, likely Republican primary voters were asked to rate each candidate’s anticipated performance on a scale of “excellent” to “terrible.”

The pre-debate poll shows that businessman Vivek Ramaswamy and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis have relatively high expectations among Republican voters. However, former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson and North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum have low expectations. These pre-debate expectations set the stage for how candidates will be evaluated based on their actual performance.

### Voter Consideration

Understanding which candidates voters are considering is crucial in predicting their post-debate impact. The poll asked respondents which candidates they were considering voting for, with the ability to select multiple options. Former President Donald Trump, despite not participating in the debate, and Gov. Ron DeSantis received the highest share of Republicans considering voting for them.

Following them closely are former Vice President Mike Pence, South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, and Vivek Ramaswamy. Former Texas Rep. Will Hurd and Miami Mayor Francis Suarez, who did not make the debate stage, rank at the bottom. Monitoring how these numbers shift after the debate will provide insight into the influence of the candidates’ performances.

### Favorability Ratings

The favorability ratings of candidates within their own party can be an essential indicator of their success. Candidates with strongly positive net favorability ratings tend to perform better. As we head into the debate, former President Trump and Gov. Ron DeSantis have favorable ratings of 66 percent and 59 percent, respectively. On the other hand, former Vice President Mike Pence and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie could benefit from a popularity boost, as they have lower favorability ratings.

Interestingly, candidates with low name recognition, such as Gov. Doug Burgum and Gov. Asa Hutchinson, have an opportunity to gain favorability through a strong debate performance. The debate serves as a crucial platform for them to make an impression on voters and increase their popularity.

### Key Issues for Republican Primary Voters

Understanding the issues that matter most to Republican primary voters can shed light on their decision-making process. The poll asked respondents to select up to three issues from a list of 16, reflecting the most important factors in determining their primary vote.

The top two issues for likely Republican primary voters are controlling inflation or costs (53 percent) and controlling immigration (36 percent). Following closely are the ability to beat President Biden, fighting liberalism and the woke agenda, and cutting government spending, all around one-quarter. Surprisingly, improving election security and limiting abortion rank among the least important issues for Republican voters.

These findings highlight the priorities of the Republican party base, focusing on economic concerns and conservative values, rather than limited government or social issues.

### Conclusion

The first Republican primary debate holds tremendous significance in shaping the narrative of the 2024 presidential race. By examining pre-debate expectations, voter consideration, favorability ratings, and key issues for Republican primary voters, we can gain insights into potential outcomes and the candidates’ prospects.

The post-debate wave of the FiveThirtyEight/Washington Post/Ipsos poll will provide valuable data on how the debate influenced voters’ opinions and perceptions. It is crucial for candidates to meet or exceed expectations, gain favorability among party members, and address the issues that matter most to Republican primary voters. A strong performance in the debate can be a transformative moment for candidates, potentially altering the course of the race.

As the debate unfolds, political analysts and voters alike will closely watch for those standout moments that hold the potential to change the trajectory of the 2024 Republican primary.