Analysis: Examining Historical Trades to Gauge Player Values
Introduction
As the MLB trade deadline approaches, the question on everyone’s mind is: What’s it going to take to acquire that missing piece to get a team over the hump? To better understand how players on the trade block might be valued, it’s valuable to look at their historical predecessors. By examining past trades, we can gain insight into the potential cost in terms of players and prospects that teams may have to pay to acquire these sought-after players.
Marcus Stroman
Marcus Stroman, the Chicago Cubs pitcher, is having a strong season with a 3.09 ERA and a 2.5 WAR. Comparing him to Yu Darvish in 2017, who had similar stats at the time of his trade, gives us an idea of what Stroman’s trade value might be. The Texas Rangers received Willie Calhoun, A.J. Alexy, and Brendon Davis in exchange for Darvish. These players were a consensus top-100 prospect, a recent draft pick, and a fringe top-30 prospect, respectively. This could be the ceiling for what the Cubs could expect in return for Stroman.
Cody Bellinger
Cody Bellinger, currently with the Cubs, has had a unique career arc. Despite a slump in his performance, he is still a valuable player. Looking at Carlos Beltrán in 2016, who experienced a similar slump before rebounding, gives us a potential comparison. While Bellinger is younger and having a better season than Beltrán was at the time of his trade, the rental prices in 2016 were higher. Therefore, a better Bellinger may still be worth about as much as Beltrán then. The return for Beltrán was Dillon Tate, Erik Swanson, and Nick Green, who were all considered solid prospects. Bellinger’s recent hot streak could increase his trade value.
Jordan Montgomery
Jordan Montgomery of the St. Louis Cardinals is having a strong season with a 3.14 ERA and a 2.5 WAR. Comparing him to J.A. Happ in 2018, who had similar stats at the time of his trade, gives us insight into Montgomery’s trade value. The Toronto Blue Jays received Brandon Drury and Billy McKinney in exchange for Happ. Montgomery offers the same kind of high-floor reliability that made Happ appealing. However, Happ had a more established track record, having won 20 games in a previous season. This suggests that Montgomery’s return may be slightly lower than what Happ fetched.
Lucas Giolito
Lucas Giolito, currently with the White Sox, is a pitcher with potential and an established floor but hasn’t yet reached his ceiling. Comparing him to Kyle Gibson in 2021 provides some insight into Giolito’s trade value. The Philadelphia Phillies acquired Gibson, Ian Kennedy, and Hans Crouse in exchange for Spencer Howard, Josh Gessner, and Kevin Gowdy. This suggests that the White Sox could package Giolito with additional players to potentially fetch a better return.
Jack Flaherty
Jack Flaherty of the St. Louis Cardinals is a talented right-hander who has had elite results in the past but is currently working his way back from health issues. Comparing him to Noah Syndergaard in 2022, who had a similar profile, gives us an idea of Flaherty’s trade value. Syndergaard was in the midst of a revitalized season and had an additional year of team control remaining. The return for Syndergaard was Mickey Moniak and Jadiel Sanchez, which may be on the low end for a Flaherty trade. However, Flaherty’s younger age and lesser financial commitment may offset this slightly.
Dylan Carlson
Dylan Carlson of the St. Louis Cardinals and Lane Thomas of the Washington Nationals both offer interesting trade possibilities. Comparing them to Tommy Pham in 2018, who had a breakout season for St. Louis, gives us some insight. The return for Pham was Génesis Cabrera, Roel Ramirez, and Justin Williams. Carlson, with his prospect pedigree, and Thomas, who is in the midst of a breakout season, could potentially fetch a similar return if traded.
David Robertson
David Robertson of the New York Mets has similar stats to what he had a year ago. Comparing him to his own trade in 2022, when he was dealt to the Philadelphia Phillies, gives us insight into his potential return. The Cubs received Ben Brown, who at the time was considered a fringe top-20 prospect. The Mets should be looking for a similar profile – someone rising fast with the potential to break out.
Jordan Hicks
Jordan Hicks of the St. Louis Cardinals, while not having the same accomplishments as Craig Kimbrel in 2021, offers a similar profile of dominance following a tough period. Comparing him to the Kimbrel trade, where the Cubs received Nick Madrigal and Codi Heuer, suggests that Hicks’ tantalizing stuff could command a higher return than his stats alone would suggest.
Conclusion
Examining historical trades offers valuable insight into the potential trade value of players currently on the trade block. While each trade is unique, comparing players to their predecessors allows us to gauge what type of return teams might expect. Factors such as age, performance, contract status, and potential can all impact a player’s trade value. As the MLB trade deadline approaches, teams will need to carefully consider these factors when evaluating potential trades.
<< photo by Pixabay >>
The image is for illustrative purposes only and does not depict the actual situation.
