The Deceptive Video of Lukashenko Raises Questions about Democracy in Belarus

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko‘s six-day disappearance from the public eye has sparked intense rumors about his health and the future of his three-decade-long rule. The health of Putin’s ally in Minsk had been the subject of intense rumors after his absence since the Victory Day parade on May 9 in Moscow’s Red Square. On Monday, Belarusian state media released a video of Lukashenko inspecting an air force installation and photos on the presidential website showed him standing in a military jacket, taking a salute from an officer. However, video showed him sounding hoarse and a bandage could be seen wrapped on his left hand, although when he was in Red Square last week, his right hand was bandaged. This raised questions about his health, and social media users noted how stilted and uncomfortable he looked.

The Belarusian government has not commented on Lukashenko‘s health or absence, although the impact of his having a serious illness or suddenly departing would be felt not just in Belarus, but also Russia and the war in Ukraine. Putin has kept Lukashenko in power, especially as the Belarusian leader, who has been president since 1994, resorted to a brutal crackdown in which activists and politicians were jailed. The election in August 2020 saw Lukashenko claim 80 percent of the vote, but it was viewed by the U.S. and the EU as rigged. The disputed election triggered mass protests and a brutal clampdown by Lukashenko, who was backed by Putin. Opposition politician Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, widely considered the real winner, went into exile.

Lukashenko has so far avoided taking a direct role in the war in Ukraine started by Putin, but the Russian leader has used Belarusian territory as a staging post for his invasion. A sudden end to Lukashenko‘s rule would create a legal crisis and uncertainty in Belarus but could also create an opening for democratic forces to engage with Lukashenko‘s circle.

Despite the tightly controlled political system, there are still shared concerns that unite both pro-democracy and pro-regime factions, such as the independence of Belarus, peace, and economic stability. The current level of state terror prevents people from coming to the streets, but this can change if the regime is weakened. In such a scenario, Belarus would require support from the West because Russia may seek to exert influence in determining the next leader of Belarus. The natural movement for those pro-Russian individuals in the system would be to seek support in the Kremlin.

If Lukashenko‘s health issues are severe and he must step down, the uncertainty and tension surrounding such a change of power could create an opportunity for democratic forces in Belarus to engage with Lukashenko‘s circle, which could ultimately lead to reforms and changes in the country. The power vacuum in Belarus would also create concern for Russia, especially in the midst of the ongoing invasion of Ukraine. Putin’s control over Belarus and Lukashenko is crucial for winning the war in Ukraine. “Without control over Belarus, the war for Putin becomes senseless. Through Donbas, through the east, Putin will not achieve anything in Ukraine,” says Franak Viacorka, the chief political adviser to Tsikhanouskaya.

In conclusion, Lukashenko‘s health issues and absence from the public eye signals the uncertainty of the future of his long-lasting rule in Belarus. If he must step down, the power vacuum creates an absence of leadership and opens opportunities for democratic forces to engage with Lukashenko‘s circle. The Western world could offer support to this movement and reduce the likelihood of Russian influence.

Belarus Democracy–Belarus,Lukashenko,Democracy,Deception,Video